Donald Tusk: “War in Europe is a real threat. And the EU is not ready”

WARSAW – “For the first time since 1945, war in Europe is becoming ‘real’ again: we might currently be sliding into a “pre-war era”. Donald Tusk admits, in this first international interview since taking office as Polish prime minister, how worried he is about the escalating threats coming from Russia. And he urges Europe to step up in its efforts to stregthen its defense – also discussing Eurobonds and funds from the Eib – no matter who will win the presidential elections in the Usa. Talking with La Repubblica and the Lena alliance of European newspapers, Tusk also explains the importance of the Weimar triangle and how the EPP should handle extreme right parties and Giorgia Meloni. Also, the former president of the European Council seems keen to fight the populists on their own turf. He pleads for reopening the negotiations on the Europan migration act – “it is not enough” – and defends the Polish farmer’s arguments against their ukrainian colleagues: “Free trade with Ukraine has to be redesigned”, he says. But on Ukraine’s situation in the current aggression war from Russia, Tusk is adamant: “If we cannot support Ukraine with enough equipment and ammunition, if Ukraine loses, no one in Europe will be able to feel safe”.

Politicians, military officials, experts all over Europe say that within a few years Russia could attack NATO countries. Is war inevitable?

“I hear this question everywhere. It circulates among the leaders of countries, and when I am at home in Sopot [city in northern Poland], even my grandchildren ask about the possibility of war. I don’t want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past. It is real, in fact it already started more than two years ago. What is most worrying now is that literally any scenario is possible. We have not had a situation like this since 1945.I remember from my childhood a photograph on a wall in my family home. It showed a Sopot beach full of laughing people. It was taken on 31 August 1939. A dozen hours later, five kilometres away, the Second World War began. I know it sounds devastating, especially to people of the younger generation, but we have to mentally get used to the arrival of a new era. The pre-war era. I don’t exaggerate. This is becoming more and more apparent every day”.

Recently, Polish airspace was again violated by a Russian cruise missile.…

“Yes, this was another worrying incident. When Lviv or other cities in western Ukraine are attacked, the sound of explosions can be heard in our part of the border area. At the last European Council I had an interesting discussion with the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. He asked us to stop using the word ‘war’ in statements. He argued that people do not want to be threatened in this way, that in Spain it sounds abstract. I replied that in my part of Europe, war is no longer an abstraction – and that our duty is not to discuss, but to act and prepare to defend ourselvesPoland prepares itself, spending 4 percent of GDP on defense.- We must be ready. Europe still has a long way to go. Fortunately, we can already see a real revolution when it comes to the European mentality. When I was Prime Minister for the first time [2007-2011], nobody except of Baltic States paid any attention to my warnings that Russia could be a threat. That possibility was dismissed, back in 2008-09 there was still a European security community from Lisbon to Vladivostok discussed . When I said that Russia was a problem for Europe, not a partner, people shrugged their shoulders: sure, a Pole, a Russophobe. Now, without particular satisfaction, I observe the changes that are taking place in all capitals in Europe. And the most important one is that nobody questions our commitment to the necessity of common defence any more. Look at Germany, a huge turnaround has taken place there. Today the main parties CDU and SPD are competing with each other over which of them is more pro-Ukrainian. Look at the dispute that French President Emmanuel Macron is having with the populists, at his determination to become one of the leaders of the anti-Putin front in Europe. And then there are the changes in Scandinavia. When I was young, Sweden and Finland were regarded as paragons of pacifism and neutrality. Today they are members of NATO. My colleagues in Stockholm or Helsinki sometimes have a tougher stance on security issues than the old members of the pact. And this is not just about rhetoric, but about actions

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dal nostro corrispondente Paolo Mastrolilli

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Struggling for a third year, Ukraine is currently experiencing hard times. What would have happened if it had lost the war?

“We need to abandon this way of thinking: ‘what if’. Our main task should be to protect Ukraine from Russian invasion and to maintain Ukraine as an independent and integral state. The future of Ukraine rests mainly in our hands. I do not mean Poland alone or even the EU, but the entire West. It is up to us to ensure that Ukraine can avoid pessimistic scenarios. Its situation today is much more difficult than it was a year ago, but also much better than it was at the beginning of the war, when Putin’s soldiers were standing on the outskirts of Kiev. The war in Ukraine may have to be thought about in the long term. This means more and more new responsibilities for European countries. It is in our interest to keep Ukraine in the best possible shape. In Poland, everyone is aware of this and it is not up for discussion.And yet it did not have to be taken for granted; we had a very difficult common history with Ukraine. What has now happened between our peoples – this undisputed solidarity – is a miracle. I want to maintain this attitude, although it is not easy”.

Especially now, when Polish farmers and TIR drivers are protesting.…

“The saddest moments in my political career are when I have to be tough and harsh with our Ukrainian friends. I am probably the most pro-Ukrainian politician in Europe, but I am responsible for my citizens. As Polish prime minister, I am supposed to protect Poland’s fundamental interests. In this case, it is not about a narrow social group, but about half a million farmers and their family members. If we add to this the shipping companies, the issue concerns the interests of millions of Polish citizens who are threatened by the liberalization of trade between Ukraine and the EU. The search for a solution to this problem occupies a huge part of my time.The Poles are paying a high price. No one can measure up to Poland when it comes to supporting Ukraine. If you compare the statistics of the ammunition sent to Ukraine, the military equipment – it seems to have been forgotten already that in the first weeks of the war we donated 300 tanks, which is practically all we had. If we add to this the wear and tear on our infrastructure, motorways, railways, the airport in Rzeszów, as well as the cost of social benefits for Ukrainians, who are treated in the same way as our own citizens, and the losses of farmers or drivers, the total goes into the tens of billions. I am reaching for these calculations to show that we really cannot bear the costs of free trade with Ukraine”.

How can this crisis be solved?

“We want to help Ukraine as much as we can. But at the last European Council I argued that the idea of free trade with Ukraine needs to be redesigned. I think I convinced France, Italy and Austria to do this. I want a fair agreement with Ukraine on this, I want to find a common denominator for the interests of Ukraine, Poland and the whole EU. There will be Polish-Ukrainian intergovernmental consultations on this issue in Warsaw on Thursday. I believe that we will reach a compromise. You were invited to the White House two weeks ago, then flew to Berlin to meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Macron. What message did you bring back from the US?- This message was that whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins the next election, it is Europe that needs to do more when it comes to defence. Not to achieve military autonomy vis-à-vis the US , or to create parallel structures to Nato – but to make better use of our potential, our capabilities and our strength. We will be a more attractive partner for the US if we are more self-sufficient in defence matters”.

What specifically do you have in mind?

“Frankly, even if Trump were to win, Europe will still have to be more active in fostering transatlantic ties, as they are the only responsible way to defend itself against Russia and other autocracies.There is often a false line of thinking according to which Europe – in order to be a loyal ally of the US – should renounce any military ambitions. Another example of false thinking suggests that because of Trump’s policies, or anti-American sentiment in some European countries, we should loosen or even break our military alliance with the US. And in my opinion, we need a strong alliance with America, and at the same time we need to be independent and self-sufficient in defence. Our task is to strengthen the transatlantic ties no matter who the US president is. You say that Europe should spend more on defense. But how to finance such spending?- There is no reason for Europeans not to respect a fundamental principle and spend a minimum of 2 per cent of GDP on defence. This is the place to start. I can understand why not all countries want to adopt the Polish model. We spend 4 per cent – but I understand that our security situation is more difficult than Spain’s or Italy’s. But 2 per cent of GDP is simply a must. I don’t understand how this can be questioned. We can discuss European defense bonds and more involvement of the European Investment Bank. Today we have to spend as much as we can to buy equipment and ammunition for Ukraine, because we are living in the most critical moment since the end of the Second World War. The next two years will decide everything. If we cannot support Ukraine with enough equipment and ammunition, if Ukraine loses, no one in Europe will be able to feel safe. We also need to change the way we think about ourselves. We live in the richest part of the world, we are at the forefront when it comes to technology or living standards. You cannot seriously compare Russia to the European Union. We need to start using this advantage. And we need to talk about new investments to buy everything that is available on the market to send to the struggling Ukraine”.

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17 Marzo 2024

Are you referring to the Czech plan to buy ammunition for Ukraine outside Europe as well?

“It does not matter to Ukrainian soldiers whether the missiles they are firing were stored in warehouses in Africa or Asia. I also had to convince our partners, including France, not to block the agreement because of equipment purchases outside Europe. 80% of the €100bn spent by the EU on equipment and ammunition went to non-European suppliers. 60 bn – to the US. Fortunately, President Macron changed his position so that we can also spend money outside Europe. This was an important breakthrough. Now we wait for an equally groundbreaking decision to be made by Republican speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson. There are some optimistic signs that unlocking $60 billion worth of US aid is possible.Aren’t you concerned that Putin will use the attack on the Crocus Hall Center near Moscow, where more than a hundred people were killed, as a pretext to escalate the war in Ukraine? – We know from history that Putin uses such tragedies for his own ends. We remember what happened after the attack on the Dubrovka theatre or the school in Beslan. Putin has already started to blame Ukraine for the preparation of this attack, although he has not presented any evidence. Evidently, he needs to justify increasingly violent attacks on civilian objects in Ukraine. On Monday, Russia attacked Kiev in daylight for the first time with hypersonic missiles”.

Let’s go back to the European Union. What role does the Polish-German-French Weimar Triangle currently play in it? And what role does Poland play in the Weimar triangle?

“What is most important for Europe’s security is agreement and cooperation between France, Germany and Poland on defence issues. Poland, thanks to its geographical location and what we do in the region, can play a very constructive role here. In the EU we have various formats. When I became prime minister, my first initiative was to renew relations with the Nordic countries, especially Sweden and Finland when they joined NATO. In terms of solidarity on security issues, this format is extremely promising. Now I am trying to improve the relationship with my colleagues in the Visegrad Group”.

Also with Viktor Orban?

“Also with him. I think I will be able to find some arguments to convince Orban to cooperate better when it comes to supporting Ukraine.I am also succeeding with Slovakia. Prime Minister Robert Fico is a very pragmatic politician. And Poland, after the political change, is better prepared to play a positive role in the region. And as its largest state, it can also help improve cooperation between Berlin and Paris and the region as a whole. If the Weimar Triangle works, we will be able to prepare some common proposals in defence policy that other countries will accept. After all, the countries of the Weimar Triangle represent more than 40 per cent of the EU population”.

After your recent meeting with Macron and Scholz, some were irritated, in Europe. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni was upset that she had not been invited, also as Italy is currently chair of the G7.

“I want to work closely with Prime Minister Meloni. She has already proved that, when it comes to geopolitics and our common interest, she is more pro-European and responsible than one would expect. I respect her for that, but I also realize how difficult it must be for her because of internal political reasons. I will do whatever it takes to develop Polish-Italian relations and to make Italy a major player in Europe. I am preparing a visit to Rome, I will personally explain to her all the doubts about the Weimar Triangle”.

In domestic politics, Meloni is becoming increasingly authoritarian, campaigning against journalists, publishers and judges, reaching for patterns familiar from the PiS government. But there is growing talk in Brussels that the European People’s Party should cooperate with her, and even offer her membership. Is this realistic, in your opinion?

“I have personally met Giorgia Meloni too recently to make any judgments. But from what I hear from her counterparts, not only from the EP, also from the Socialists or Liberals, it seems that Meloni’s positive role in Brussels, in the European Council, is widely appreciated. I was impressed when I heard her speak publicly in support of Ukraine. She passionately defended pro-Ukrainian policies in the Italian parliament. Internationally, I hear only her pro-European statements.Meloni is certainly aware that I would find it difficult to accept her views and methods when it comes to domestic policy”.

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So will there be once again a coalition of the European People’s Party, the Social Democrats and the Liberals after the Europarliamentary elections, or will the EPP enter into cooperation with the extreme right, as Spanish Christian Democrats leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo is doing?

“I have a clear position on the far-right parties in Poland, but every democratic leader knows best the situation in his country and decides for himself what strategy to adopt.The far right is part of government coalitions in Sweden, Finland, several Spanish regions, and it remains to be seen whether this will not also happen after the elections in Portugal. Looking for positive aspects, let us note that some far-right parties have changed thanks to this”.

So can alliances with the extreme right be accepted?

“It would be better if such a far-right parties were defeated in elections, then you wouldn’t have to ask yourself such questions. To be effective in this you can’t lose sight of what is going on in people’s heads. I think ordinary people – not politicians, not activists – have become more sceptical and want a more realistic approach. The war, but also the pandemic before it, or the migrant crisis, have shown us that we need to be more pragmatic and sensitive to the fears that our citizens have. This approach can now be seen in every EU capital”.

Does this mean that you want to renegotiate the migration pact adopted by the EU?

“Unfortunately, this pact is not a good answer to the problems we face in Poland. In our part of Europe, migration means something different to the Mediterranean. Here it is not a spontaneous phenomenon. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian women and men are spontaneously fleeing to us from the war, and we have received them without any restrictions since the beginning. The problem is that today, once again, we are witnessing a well-prepared operation organized by the Lukashenko regime on the border with Belarus. I will not justify some of the methods used by the Polish border guards, but we cannot be helpless in the face of Putin and Lukashenko, they not only organize this, they use it as a tool of pressure. It is the state’s job to effectively protect its borders and territory. And it is a duty, especially given all the aspects of Russian hybrid activity. The European Union as a whole, as a powerful organization, must be mentally ready to fight for the security of our borders and territory. If we continue to be naïve, unreservedly open, we will lose the support of the people. We will lose out to countries and powers that are prepared to fight violently for their interests. We must be sure that, when it will be necessary, we will not hesitate to stop these countries”.

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dal nostro corrispondente Claudio Tito

13 Febbraio 2024

As the leader of the Polish opposition, you won an unequal battle with PiS. What can Europe learn from the Polish victory over populism?

“It takes determination and belief in victory, this is key. Kaczynski and his patsy were much weaker than assumed. The problem was to convince people that the concepts of ‘rule of law’ or ‘freedom’ are not abstractions, but issues that affect everyday life and fighting for them can lead to victory. I fought for freedom as a 20-year-old, and unfortunately it turned out that a similar determination was needed in Poland in recent times to that of the fight against oppressive communism.Most importantly: one must not fall into bothsidesism. One must have a very clear communication with the voters. If someone is a thief, you have to say that he is a thief, and if there is corruption, violence, you have to talk about corruption and violence. Besides, to win against authoritarianism and populists, sometimes you have to be able to use their own arguments. It happens that Kaczynski or Orban are partly right in their diagnoses, but the medicine they propose is poisonous and wrong. The answer is not to deny people’s fears and the threats they see with their own eyes, but to find and propose a solution that is not anti-democratic and inhumane. For example during the first migration crisis in 2015. People wanted to hear from the leaders what their plan was to protect the borders, they did not suddenly become xenophobic, but they lost their sense of security, of stability, of the future being predictable”.

Is that why your government is continuing pushbacks on the border with Belarus?

“This is a completely different issue. I have already spoken about it. International law needs to be corrected on this issue, although I know it is almost impossible today, but the current legislation was introduced in completely different times. I am not even talking about the fact that the UN estimates that 100 million people from Asia and Africa are ready to emigrate to Europe, but about the fact that authoritarian regimes instrumentally use these already disadvantaged people as part of a hybrid war”.

The Geneva Refugee Convention obliges every country to examine any asylum application.

“No one can vet every person if Russia and Belarus send thousands of people at a time to the border. They do it deliberately and coldly. If we can handle a thousand then they will send ten thousand and so on, their aim is to destabilize. They treat people like a tool, absolutely objectively. They want us to reach a point where we have to deny our own rights and values. That is the problem in our part of Europe. We need to be as human as possible. Push-backs as a method are morally unacceptable, we must find a better solution, but the alternative cannot be helplessness”.